Change in Age profile of Respiratory Syncytial Virus disease over the course of annual epidemics: a multi-national study.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to study whether the percentwise age distribution of RSV cases changes over time during annual epidemics. METHODS: We used surveillance data (2008-2019) from the Netherlands, Lyon (France), Portugal, Singapore, Ecuador, South Africa, and New Zealand. In each country, every season was divided into "epidemic quarters", i.e. periods corresponding to each quartile of RSV cases. Multinomial logistic regression models were fitted to evaluate whether the likelihood of RSV cases being aged <1 or ≥5 years (vs. 1 to <5) changed over time within a season. RESULTS: In all countries, RSV cases were significantly more likely to be aged <1 year in the 4th vs. 1st epidemic quarter; the relative risk ratio [RRR] ranged between 1.35 and 2.56. Likewise, RSV cases were significantly more likely to be aged ≥5 years in the 4th vs. 1st epidemic quarter (except in Singapore); the RRR ranged from 1.75 to 6.70. The results did not change when stratifying by level of care or moving the lower cut-off to 6 months. CONCLUSIONS: The age profile of RSV cases shifts within a season, with infants and adolescents, adults, and the elderly constituting a higher proportion of cases in the later phases of annual epidemics. These findings may have implications for RSV prevention policies with newly approved vaccines.

Antibiotic utilisation and resistance over the first decade of nationally funded antimicrobial stewardship programmes in Singapore acute-care hospitals.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to describe the time series of broad-spectrum antibiotic utilisation and incidence of antibiotic-resistant organisms during the implementation of antimicrobial stewardship programmes (ASP) in Singapore. METHODS: An observational study was conducted using data from 2011 to 2020 in seven acute-care public hospitals. We applied joinpoint regressions to investigate changes in antibiotic utilisation rate and incidence density of antibiotic-resistant organisms. RESULTS: Across the seven hospitals, quarterly broad-spectrum antibiotic utilisation rate remained stable. Half-yearly incidence density of antibiotic-resistant organisms with two joinpoints at first half (H1) of 2012 and second half (H2) of 2014 decreased significantly in the second and third period with a half-yearly percentage change (HPC) of -2.9% and - 0.5%, respectively. Across the five hospitals with complete data, half-yearly broad-spectrum antibiotic utilisation rate with one joinpoint decreased significantly from H1 of 2011 to H2 of 2018 (HPC - 4.0%) and H2 of 2018 to H2 2020 (HPC - 0.5%). Incidence density of antibiotic-resistant organisms decreased significantly in the two joinpoint periods from H1 of 2012 to H2 of 2014 (HPC - 2.7%) and H2 of 2014 to H2 of 2020 (HPC - 1.0%). Ceftriaxone with one joinpoint decreased significantly from H1 of 2011 to H1 of 2014 (HPC - 6.0%) and H1 of 2014 to H2 of 2020 (HPC - 1.8%) and ceftriaxone-resistant E. coli and K. pneumoniae decreased significantly in later periods, from H2 of 2016 to H2 of 2020 (HPC - 2.5%) and H1 of 2012 to H2 of 2015 (HPC - 4.6%) respectively. Anti-pseudomonal antibiotics with one joinpoint decreased significantly from H1 of 2011 to H2 of 2014 (HPC - 4.5%) and H2 of 2014 to H2 of 2020 (HPC - 0.8%) and that of quinolones with one joinpoint at H1 of 2015 decreased significantly in the first period. C. difficile with one joinpoint increased significantly from H1 of 2011 to H1 of 2015 (HPC 3.9%) and decreased significantly from H1 of 2015 to H2 of 2020 (HPC - 4.9%). CONCLUSIONS: In the five hospitals with complete data, decrease in broad-spectrum antibiotic utilisation rate was followed by decrease in incidence density of antibiotic-resistant organisms. ASP should continue to be nationally funded as a key measure to combat antimicrobial resistance in acute care hospitals.

Clinical Predictors for Abnormal ALT in Patients Infected with COVID-19-A Retrospective Single Centre Study.

OBJECTIVE: Abnormal liver tests have been associated with worse clinical outcomes in patients infected with COVID-19. This retrospective observational study from Singapore aims to elucidate simple clinical predictors of abnormal alanine aminotransferase (ALT) in COVID-19 infections. DESIGN: 717 patients hospitalised with COVID-19 at the National Centre for Infectious Diseases (NCID), Singapore, from 23 January-15 April 2020 were screened, of which 163 patients with baseline normal alanine transferase (ALT) and at least two subsequent ALTs performed were included in the final analysis. Information on baseline demographics, clinical characteristics and biochemical laboratory tests were collected. RESULTS: 30.7% of patients developed abnormal ALT. They were more likely to be older (60 vs. 55, p = 0.022) and have comorbidities of hyperlipidaemia and hypertension. The multivariate logistic regression showed that R-factor ≥1 on admission (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 3.13, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.41-6.95) and hypoxia (aOR 3.54, 95% CI 1.29-9.69) were independent risk factors for developing abnormal ALT. The patients who developed abnormal ALT also ran a more severe course of illness with a greater proportion needing supplementary oxygen (58% vs. 18.6%, p < 0.0005), admission to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU)/High Dependency Unit (HDU) (32% vs. 11.5%, p = 0.003) and intubation (20% vs. 2.7%, p < 0.0005). There was no difference in death rate between the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: Liver injury is associated with poor clinical outcomes in patients with COVID-19. R-factor ≥1 on admission and hypoxia are independent simple clinical predictors for developing abnormal ALT in COVID-19.

Sustaining Antimicrobial Stewardship in a High-Antibiotic Resistance Setting.

Importance: There is a lack of studies comparing the intended and unintended consequences of prospective review and feedback (PRF) with computerized decision support systems (CDSS), especially in the longer term in antimicrobial stewardship. Objective: To examine the outcomes associated with the sequential implementation of PRF and CDSS and changes to these interventions with long-term use of antibiotics for and incidence of multidrug resistant organisms (MDROs) and other unintended outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used an interrupted time series with segmented regression analysis of data from January 2007 to December 2018. Data were extracted from the electronic medical records of patients admitted at a large university teaching hospital with high rates of antibiotic resistance in Singapore. Data were analyzed from June 2019 to June 2020. Exposures: PRF of piperacillin-tazobactam and carbapenems (intervention 1, April 2009), with the addition of hospital-wide CDSS (intervention 2, April 2011), and lifting of CDSS for half of the hospital wards for 6 months (intervention 3, March 2017). Main Outcomes and Measures: Monthly antimicrobial use was measured in defined daily doses (DDDs) per 1000 patient-days. The monthly incidence of MDROs was calculated as number of clinical isolates detected per 1000 inpatient-days over a 6-month period. Unintended outcomes examined included in-hospital mortality and age-adjusted length of stay (LOS). Results: The number of inpatients increased from 56 263 in 2007 to 63 572 in 2018. During the same period, the mean monthly patient days increased from 33 929 in 2007 to 45 603 in 2018, and the proportion of patients older than 65 years increased from 45.5% in 2007 to 56.6% in 2018. After intervention 1, there were 0.33 (95% CI, 0.18 to 0.48) more DDDs per 1000 patient-days per month of piperacillin-tazobactam and carbapenems and -11.05 (95% CI, -15.55 to -6.55) fewer DDDs per 1000 patient-days per month for other broad-spectrum antibiotics. After intervention 2, there were -0.22 (95% CI, -0.33 to -0.10) fewer DDDs per 1000 patient-days per month of piperacillin-tazobactam and carbapenems and -2.10 (95% CI, -3.13 to -1.07) fewer DDDs per 1000 patient-days per month for other broad-spectrum antibiotics. After intervention 3, use of piperacillin-tazobactam and carbapenem increased by 0.28 (95% CI, 0.02 to 0.55) DDDs per 1000 patient-days per month. After intervention 2, incidence of Clostridioides difficile decreased (estimate, -0.02 [95% CI, -0.03 to -0.01] cases per 1000 patient-days per month). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, concurrent PRF and CDSS were associated with limiting the use of piperacillin-tazobactam and carbapenems while reducing use of other antibiotics.

Health-seeking behavior of COVID-19 cases during the first eight weeks of the outbreak in Singapore: differences between local community and imported cases and having visits to single or multiple healthcare providers.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 is a novel pandemic affecting almost all countries leading to lockdowns worldwide. In Singapore, locally-acquired cases emerged after the first wave of imported cases, and these two groups of cases may have different health-seeking behavior affecting disease transmission. We investigated differences in health-seeking behavior between locally-acquired cases and imported cases, and within the locally-acquired cases, those who saw single versus multiple healthcare providers. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study of 258 patients who were diagnosed with COVID-19 from 23 January to 17 March 2020. Variables related to health-seeking behavior included number of visits prior to hospitalization, timing of the first visit, duration from symptom onset to admission, and places where the cases had at least one visit. RESULTS: Locally-acquired cases had longer duration from onset of symptoms to hospital admission (median 6 days, interquartile range [IQR] 4-9) than imported cases (median 4 days, IQR 2-7) (p < 0.001). Singapore residents were more likely to have at least one visit to private clinics and/or government-subsidized public clinics than non-residents (84.0% vs. 58.7%, p < 0.001). Among locally-acquired cases, those who sought care from a single healthcare provider had fewer visits before their hospital admissions compared with those who went to multiple providers (median 2 vs. 3, p = 0.001). CONCLUSION: Our study indicates the need to encourage individuals to seek medical attention early on in their patient journey, particularly from the same healthcare provider. This in turn, would facilitate early detection and isolation, hence limiting local transmission and enabling better control of the COVID-19 outbreak.

Prevalence of measles antibodies among migrant workers in Singapore: a serological study to identify susceptible population subgroups.

BACKGROUND: In 2019, two clusters of measles cases were reported in migrant worker dormitories in Singapore. We conducted a seroprevalence study to measure the level of susceptibility to measles among migrant workers in Singapore. METHODS: Our study involved residual sera of migrant workers from seven Asian countries (Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar and the Philippines) who had participated in a survey between 2016 and 2019. Immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody levels were first measured using a commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) test kit. Those with equivocal or negative IgG results were further evaluated using plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT). RESULTS: A total of 2234 migrant workers aged 20-49 years were included in the study. The overall prevalence of measles IgG antibodies among migrant workers from the seven Asian countries was 90.5% (95% confidence interval 89.2-91.6%). The country-specific seroprevalence ranged from 80.3 to 94.0%. The seroprevalence was significantly higher among migrant workers born in 1965-1989 than those born in 1990-1999 (95.3% vs. 86.6%, p < 0.0005), whereas there was no significant difference by gender (90.8% in men vs. 89.9% in women, p = 0.508). 195 out of 213 samples with equivocal or negative ELISA results were tested positive using PRNT. CONCLUSION: The IgG seroprevalence in migrant workers was below the herd immunity threshold of 95% for measles. Sporadic outbreaks may occur in susceptible individuals due to high transmissibility of measles virus. Seroprevalence surveys can help identify susceptible subgroups for vaccination.

Seroprevalence of IgG antibodies against diphtheria antitoxin among migrant workers in Singapore, 2016-2019.

BACKGROUND: Since the last local case of diphtheria in 1992, there had not been any case in Singapore until an autochthonous case was reported in 2017. This fatal diphtheria case of a migrant worker raised concerns about the potential re-emergence of locally transmitted toxigenic diphtheria in Singapore. We conducted a seroprevalence study to assess the immunity levels to diphtheria among migrant workers in Singapore. METHODS: Residual sera from migrant workers who hailed from Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar and the Philippines were tested for anti-diphtheria toxoid immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies. These migrant workers previously participated in a survey between 2016 and 2019 and had provided blood samples as part of the survey procedure. RESULTS: A total of 2176 migrant workers were included in the study. Their overall mean age was 27.1 years (standard deviation 5.0), range was 20-43 years. The proportion having at least basic protection against diphtheria (antitoxin titres ≥ 0.01 IU/ml) ranged from 77.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 72.8 - 82.3%) among migrant workers from Bangladesh to 96.7% (95% CI 92.5 - 98.6%) in those hailing from Malaysia. The proportion showing full protection (antitoxin titres ≥ 0.10 IU/ml) ranged from 10.1% (95% CI 6.5 - 15.4%) in Chinese workers to 23.0% (95% CI 17.1 - 30.3%) in Malaysian workers. There were no significant differences in the proportion with at least basic protection across birth cohorts, except for those from Bangladesh where the seroprevalence was significantly lower in younger migrant workers born after 1989. CONCLUSIONS: The proportions having at least basic protection against diphtheria in migrant workers from five out of seven Asian countries (India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar and the Philippines) were higher than 85%, the threshold for diphtheria herd immunity. Seroprevalence surveys should be conducted periodically to assess the level of immunity against diphtheria and other vaccine preventable diseases in migrant worker population, so that appropriate interventions such as booster vaccination can be implemented proactively to prevent sporadic outbreaks.

Virological and serological kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant vaccine breakthrough infections: a multicentre cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Highly effective vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have been developed but variants of concerns are worrisome, especially B.1.617.2 (Delta) which has rapidly spread across the world. We aim to study if vaccination alters virological and serological kinetics in breakthrough infections. METHODS: We conducted a multicentre retrospective cohort study of patients in Singapore who had received a licensed mRNA vaccine and been admitted to hospital with B.1.617.2 SARS-CoV-2 infection. We compared clinical features, virological and serological kinetics (anti-nucleocapsid, anti-spike and surrogate virus neutralization titres) between fully vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. RESULTS: Out of 218 individuals with B.1.617.2 infection, 84 received an mRNA vaccine of which 71 were fully vaccinated, 130 were unvaccinated and four received a non-mRNA vaccine. Despite significantly older age in the vaccine breakthrough group, only 2.8% (2/71) developed severe COVID-19 requiring oxygen supplementation compared with 53.1% (69/130) in the unvaccinated group (p < 0.001). Odds of severe COVID-19 following vaccination were significantly lower (adjusted odds ratio 0.07 95% CI 0.015-0.335, p 0.001). PCR cycle threshold values were similar between vaccinated and unvaccinated groups at diagnosis, but viral loads decreased faster in vaccinated individuals. Early, robust boosting of anti-spike protein antibodies was observed in vaccinated patients; however, these titres were significantly lower against B.1.617.2 than the wildtype vaccine strain. DISCUSSION: The mRNA vaccines are highly effective at preventing symptomatic and severe COVID-19 associated with B.1.617.2 infection. Vaccination is associated with faster decline in viral RNA load and a robust serological response. Vaccination remains a key strategy for control of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Clinical and Virological Features of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Variants of Concern: A Retrospective Cohort Study Comparing B.1.1.7 (Alpha), B.1.351 (Beta), and B.1.617.2 (Delta).

BACKGROUND: The impact of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) on disease severity is unclear. In this retrospective study, we compared the outcomes of patients infected with B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and B.1.617.2 with wild-type strains from early 2020. METHODS: National surveillance data from January to May 2021 were obtained and outcomes in relation to VOCs were explored. Detailed patient-level data from all patients with VOC infection admitted to our center between December 2020 and May 2021 were analyzed. Clinical outcomes were compared with a cohort of 846 patients admitted from January to April 2020. RESULTS: A total of 829 patients in Singapore in the study period were infected with these 3 VOCs. After adjusting for age and sex, B.1.617.2 was associated with higher odds of oxygen requirement, intensive care unit admission, or death (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 4.90; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.43-30.78). Of these patients, 157 were admitted to our center. After adjusting for age, sex, comorbidities, and vaccination, the aOR for pneumonia with B.1.617.2 was 1.88 (95% CI: .95-3.76) compared with wild-type. These differences were not seen with B.1.1.7 and B.1.351. Vaccination status was associated with decreased severity. B.1.617.2 was associated with significantly lower polymerase chain reaction cycle threshold (Ct) values and longer duration of Ct value ≤30 (median duration 18 days for B.1.617.2, 13 days for wild-type). CONCLUSIONS: B.1.617.2 was associated with increased severity of illness, and with lower Ct values and longer viral shedding. These findings provide impetus for the rapid implementation of vaccination programs.

Differentiating coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from influenza and dengue.

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) presents with non-specific clinical features. This may result in misdiagnosis or delayed diagnosis, and lead to further transmission in the community. We aimed to derive early predictors to differentiate COVID-19 from influenza and dengue. The study comprised 126 patients with COVID-19, 171 with influenza and 180 with dengue, who presented within 5 days of symptom onset. All cases were confirmed by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction tests. We used logistic regression models to identify demographics, clinical characteristics and laboratory markers in classifying COVID-19 versus influenza, and COVID-19 versus dengue. The performance of each model was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Shortness of breath was the strongest predictor in the models for differentiating between COVID-19 and influenza, followed by diarrhoea. Higher lymphocyte count was predictive of COVID-19 versus influenza and versus dengue. In the model for differentiating between COVID-19 and dengue, patients with cough and higher platelet count were at increased odds of COVID-19, while headache, joint pain, skin rash and vomiting/nausea were indicative of dengue. The cross-validated area under the ROC curve for all four models was above 0.85. Clinical features and simple laboratory markers for differentiating COVID-19 from influenza and dengue are identified in this study which can be used by primary care physicians in resource limited settings to determine if further investigations or referrals would be required.

The Global Epidemiology of RSV in Community and Hospitalized Care: Findings From 15 Countries.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is one of the leading causes of acute respiratory tract infections. To optimize control strategies, a better understanding of the global epidemiology of RSV is critical. To this end, we initiated the Global Epidemiology of RSV in Hospitalized and Community care study (GERi). METHODS: Focal points from 44 countries were approached to join GERi and share detailed RSV surveillance data. Countries completed a questionnaire on the characteristics of their surveillance system. RESULTS: Fifteen countries provided granular surveillance data and information on their surveillance system. A median (interquartile range) of 1641 (552-2415) RSV cases per season were reported from 2000 and 2020. The majority (55%) of RSV cases occurred in the <1-year-olds, with 8% of cases reported in those aged ≥65 years. Hospitalized cases were younger than those in community care. We found no age difference between RSV subtypes and no clear pattern of dominant subtypes. CONCLUSIONS: The high number of cases in the <1-year-olds indicates a need to focus prevention efforts in this group. The minimal differences between RSV subtypes and their co-circulation implies that prevention needs to target both subtypes. Importantly, there appears to be a lack of RSV surveillance data in the elderly.

Epidemiological factors associated with the absence of previous HIV testing among HIV-positive persons in Singapore, 2012-2017.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the temporal trend and identify risk factors associated with the absence of previous HIV testing prior to their diagnosis among HIV-positive persons in Singapore. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: We analysed data of HIV-positive persons infected via sexual transmission, who were notified to the National HIV Registry in 2012-2017. OUTCOMES: Epidemiological factors associated with the absence of HIV testing prior to diagnosis were determined separately for two groups of HIV-positive persons: early and late stages of HIV infection at diagnosis. RESULTS: 2188 HIV-positive persons with information on HIV testing history and CD4 cell count were included in the study. The median age at HIV diagnosis was 40 years (IQR 30-51). Nearly half (45.1%) had never been tested for HIV prior to their diagnosis. The most common reason cited for no previous HIV testing was 'not necessary to test' (73.7%). The proportion diagnosed at late-stage HIV infection was significantly higher among HIV-positive persons who had never been tested for HIV (63.9%) compared with those who had undergone previous HIV tests (29.0%). Common risk factors associated with no previous HIV testing in multivariable logistic regression analysis stratified by stage of HIV infection were: older age at HIV diagnosis, lower educational level, detection via medical care and HIV infection via heterosexual transmission. In the stratified analysis for persons diagnosed at early-stage of HIV infection, in addition to the four risk factors, women and those of Malay ethnicity were also less likely to have previous HIV testing prior to their diagnosis. CONCLUSION: Targeted prevention efforts and strategies are needed to raise the level of awareness of HIV/AIDS and to encourage early and regular screening among the at-risk groups by making HIV testing more accessible.

Food sources of dietary fibre and risk of total knee replacement related to severe osteoarthritis, the Singapore Chinese Health Study.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to evaluate the association between fibre intake and its food sources, and the risk of total knee replacement (TKR) due to severe knee osteoarthritis (KOA). METHODS: We used data from the Singapore Chinese Health Study, a prospective cohort study that recruited 63 257 participants aged 45-74 years from 1993 to 1998. At baseline, we assessed diet using a validated 165-item semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire, together with body mass index (BMI) and lifestyle factors. Incident TKR cases were identified via record linkage with nationwide hospital discharge database through 2017. RESULTS: There were 2816 cases of incident TKR due to severe KOA. The total fibre intake at baseline was not associated with the risk of TKR after adjustment for confounders. Among the food sources of fibre, higher intake of legumes was associated with a lower risk of TKR in a dose-dependent manner; compared with those having the lowest quartile intake, HR (95% CI) was 0.86 (0.76, 0.96) for those having the highest quartile intake (p for trend=0.004). This association was consistent after including BMI in the model and homogeneous across BMI categories. The consumption of other fibre sources, namely grain products, nuts and seeds, soy food, fruits and vegetables, was not associated with the risk of TKR. CONCLUSION: Intake of legumes, but not total fibre, was associated with a reduced risk of TKR. Further research is needed to replicate our findings and to evaluate possible biological mechanisms that could explain the effect of dietary legumes on pathogenesis or progression of KOA.

Recurrent Tuberculosis Disease in Singapore.

BACKGROUND: Previously treated (ie, recurrent) tuberculosis (TB) cases account for approximately 7%-8% of incident TB globally and in Singapore. Molecular fingerprinting has enabled the differentiation of these patients into relapsed or reinfection cases. METHODS: Patient demographics, disease characteristics, and treatment information were obtained from the national TB notification registry and TB Control Unit. We performed a retrospective, case-control study to evaluate factors associated with recurrent TB disease in Singapore citizens and permanent residents with culture-positive TB from 2006 to 2013 and who developed a second episode of culture-positive TB up to 2016 using multivariable logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: Ninety-one cases with culture-positive first and recurrent TB disease episodes were identified. Recurrent TB was associated with age ≥60 years (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.98 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.09-3.61), male sex (aOR, 2.29 [95% CI, 1.22-4.51]), having concomitant pulmonary and extrapulmonary TB (aOR, 3.10 [95% CI, 1.59-6.10]) and extrapulmonary TB alone (aOR, 3.82 [95% CI, 1.12-13.31]), and was less likely in non-Malays (aOR, 0.52 [95% CI, .27-.99]). DNA fingerprinting results for both episodes in 49 cases differentiated these into 28 relapsed and 21 reinfection cases. Relapse was associated with having concomitant pulmonary and extrapulmonary TB (aOR, 9.24 [95% CI, 2.50-42.42]) and positive sputum acid-fast bacilli smear (aOR, 3.95 [95% CI, 1.36-13.10]). CONCLUSIONS: Relapse and reinfection contributed to 57% and 43%, respectively, of recurrent TB in Singapore. Our study highlights the underappreciated association of concomitant pulmonary and extrapulmonary TB as a significant risk factor for disease relapse.

Defining the seasonality of respiratory syncytial virus around the world: National and subnational surveillance data from 12 countries.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections are one of the leading causes of lower respiratory tract infections and have a major burden on society. For prevention and control to be deployed effectively, an improved understanding of the seasonality of RSV is necessary. OBJECTIVES: The main objective of this study was to contribute to a better understanding of RSV seasonality by examining the GERi multi-country surveillance dataset. METHODS: RSV seasons were included in the analysis if they contained ≥100 cases. Seasonality was determined using the "average annual percentage" method. Analyses were performed at a subnational level for the United States and Brazil. RESULTS: We included 601 425 RSV cases from 12 countries. Most temperate countries experienced RSV epidemics in the winter, with a median duration of 10-21 weeks. Not all epidemics fit this pattern in a consistent manner, with some occurring later or in an irregular manner. More variation in timing was observed in (sub)tropical countries, and we found substantial differences in seasonality at a subnational level. No association was found between the timing of the epidemic and the dominant RSV subtype. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that geographical location or climatic characteristics cannot be used as a definitive predictor for the timing of RSV epidemics and highlight the need for (sub)national data collection and analysis.

Short-term mortality from HIV-infected persons diagnosed from 2012 to 2016: Impact of late diagnosis of HIV infection.

ABSTRACT: We investigated the temporal trends of short-term mortality (death within 1 year of diagnosis) and cause-specific deaths in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected persons by stage of HIV infection at diagnosis. We also assessed the impact of late diagnosis (LD) on short-term mortality.Epidemiological records of HIV-infected Singapore residents from the National HIV Registry were linked to death records from the Registry of Births and Deaths for observational analyses. Newly-diagnosed HIV cases with available cluster of differentiation 4 count at time of diagnosis in a 5-year period from 2012 to 2016 were included in the study. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of LD for all deaths excluding suicides and self-inflicted or accidental injuries, and HIV/ acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)-related deaths occurring within 1 year post-diagnosis were calculated using Cox proportional hazards regression models with adjustment for age at HIV/AIDS diagnosis. Population attributable risk proportions (PARPs) were then calculated using the adjusted HRs.Of the 1990 newly-diagnosed HIV cases included in the study, 7.2% had died by end of 2017, giving an overall mortality rate of 2.16 per 100 person-years (PY) (95% CI 1.82-2.54). The mortality rate was 3.81 per 100 PY (95% CI 3.15-4.56) in HIV cases with LD, compared with 0.71 (95% CI 0.46-1.05) in non-LD (nLD) cases. Short-term mortality was significantly higher in LD (9.1%) than nLD cases (1.1%). Of the 143 deaths reported between 2012 and 2017, 58.0% were HIV/AIDS-related (nLD 28.0% vs LD 64.4%). HIV/AIDS-related causes represented 70.4% of all deaths which occurred during the first year of diagnosis (nLD 36.4% vs LD 74.7%). The PARP of short-term mortality due to LD was 77.8% for all deaths by natural causes, and 87.8% for HIV/AIDS-related deaths.The mortality rate of HIV-infected persons with LD was higher than nLD, especially within 1 year of diagnosis, and HIV/AIDS-related causes constituted majority of these deaths. To reduce short-term mortality, persons at high risk of late-stage HIV infection should be targeted in outreach efforts to promote health screening and remove barriers to HIV testing and treatment.

Hepatitis C virus infection in HIV-infected men in Singapore, 2006-2018: incidence and associated factors.

Background The epidemiology of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in people living with HIV has been evolving, with increasing evidence of permucosal (sexual) transmission identified predominantly in HIV-positive men who have sex with men (MSM). The aim of this study was to estimate the incidence rate and elucidate epidemiological factors associated with HCV infection among HIV-infected men in Singapore from 2006 to 2018. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using a clinical database maintained by the Clinical HIV Program at the National Centre for Infectious Diseases, Singapore. Factors associated with incident HCV infections were identified using Cox proportional hazards regression analyses. RESULTS: Among 1348 HIV-infected male patients who were HCV seronegative at baseline, 64 (4.7%) subsequently tested positive for HCV, giving an incidence of 0.88 per 100 person-years of follow-up (PYFU) (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.69-1.13). The incidence rate of HCV seroconversion increased from 0.33 (95% CI 0.12-0.71) per 100 PYFU in 2010-2012 to 1.93 (95% CI 1.36-2.67) in 2016-2018. Independent factors associated with incident HCV infection were younger age groups at HIV diagnosis versus ≥45 years, HIV acquisition via MSM or via both sexual contact and intravenous drug use versus heterosexual transmission, HIV diagnosis in later periods versus 2006-2009, and recent syphilis acquisition. CONCLUSIONS: An increasing trend of incident HCV infection was seen in HIV-infected men, particularly for MSM. Preventive and behavioural interventions should be targeted at HIV-infected individuals engaged in high-risk sexual behaviour.

An observational study of the prevalence of metabolic syndrome in treatment-experienced people living with HIV in Singapore.

BACKGROUND: While the use of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) has conferred significant reduction in morbidity and mortality, there are growing concerns about the metabolic complications of antiretroviral regimens in HIV-infected patients. The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) among people living with HIV (PLHIV) in Singapore. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study using the clinical database maintained by the Clinical HIV Programme at the National Centre for Infectious Diseases, Singapore. Treatment-experienced PLHIV on follow-up during 2015-2017 were included. MetS was defined as having three or more of the following five abnormalities: hypertriglyceridemia, HDL hypocholesterolemia, hypertension, obesity, and diabetes. RESULTS: A total of 2,231 PLHIV were included in this study. 93.9% were men, and the median age at latest follow-up was 48 years. The median duration of HIV infection and duration of exposure to cART was 6.8 years and 5.7 years, respectively. All had been exposed to nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) as the first line of treatment, 93.9% to non-NRTIs, 28.6% to protease inhibitors (PIs) and 12.8% to integrase strand transfer inhibitors. The most common metabolic abnormality among PLHIV was HDL hypocholesterolemia (60.2%) followed by hypertriglyceridemia (45.5%). Of all the 2,231 individuals, 68.8% had at least one component of MetS. The overall prevalence of MetS was 23.6% (95% confidence interval 21.9%-25.4%). Of the 526 with MetS, the most common combination was HDL hypocholesterolemia, hypertriglyceridemia and hypertension (51.0%), followed by HDL hypocholesterolemia, hypertriglyceridemia, hypertension and diabetes (25.1%). Compared with PLHIV without MetS, a significantly higher proportion of those with MetS were ever on protease inhibitors (33.5% vs. 27.1%). CONCLUSION: MetS is common in PLHIV. In view of the progressive aging of HIV-infected population and long-term use of cART, regular monitoring for metabolic abnormalities, surveillance of drug effects and behavioural interventions are needed to optimize management and prevention of metabolic disorders in PLHIV.

Association of SARS-CoV-2 clades with clinical, inflammatory and virologic outcomes: An observational study.

BACKGROUND: Host determinants of severe coronavirus disease 2019 include advanced age, comorbidities and male sex. Virologic factors may also be important in determining clinical outcome and transmission rates, but limited patient-level data is available. METHODS: We conducted an observational cohort study at seven public hospitals in Singapore. Clinical and laboratory data were collected and compared between individuals infected with different SARS-CoV-2 clades. Firth's logistic regression was used to examine the association between SARS-CoV-2 clade and development of hypoxia, and quasi-Poisson regression to compare transmission rates. Plasma samples were tested for immune mediator levels and the kinetics of viral replication in cell culture were compared. FINDINGS: 319 patients with PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection had clinical and virologic data available for analysis. 29 (9%) were infected with clade S, 90 (28%) with clade L/V, 96 (30%) with clade G (containing D614G variant), and 104 (33%) with other clades 'O' were assigned to lineage B.6. After adjusting for age and other covariates, infections with clade S (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0·030 (95% confidence intervals (CI): 0·0002-0·29)) or clade O (B·6) (aOR 0·26 (95% CI 0·064-0·93)) were associated with lower odds of developing hypoxia requiring supplemental oxygen compared with clade L/V. Patients infected with clade L/V had more pronounced systemic inflammation with higher concentrations of pro-inflammatory cytokines, chemokines and growth factors. No significant difference in the severity of clade G infections was observed (aOR 0·95 (95% CI: 0·35-2·52). Though viral loads were significantly higher, there was no evidence of increased transmissibility of clade G, and replicative fitness in cell culture was similar for all clades. INTERPRETATION: Infection with clades L/V was associated with increased severity and more systemic release of pro-inflammatory cytokines. Infection with clade G was not associated with changes in severity, and despite higher viral loads there was no evidence of increased transmissibility.

Risk Factors for Development of Acute Kidney Injury in COVID-19 Patients: A Retrospective Observational Cohort Study.

INTRODUCTION: Acute kidney injury (AKI) in coronavirus infection disease (COVID-19) is associated with disease severity. We aimed to evaluate risk factors associated with AKI beyond COVID-19 severity. METHODS: A retrospective observational study of COVID-19 patients admitted to a tertiary hospital in Singapore. Logistic regression was used to evaluate associations between risk factors and AKI (based on Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes criteria). Dominance analysis was performed to evaluate the relative importance of individual factors. RESULTS: Seven hundred seven patients were included. Median age was 46 years (interquartile range [IQR]: 29-57) and 57% were male with few comorbidities (93%, Charlson Comorbidity Index [CCI] <1). AKI occurred in 57 patients (8.1%); 39 were in AKI stage 1 (68%), 9 in stage 2 (16%), and 9 in stage 3 (16%). Older age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.04; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01-1.07), baseline use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACE-I) or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) (aOR 2.86; 95% CI: 1.20-6.83), exposure to vancomycin (aOR 5.84; 95% CI: 2.10-16.19), use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) (aOR 3.04; 95% CI: 1.15-8.05), and severe COVID-19 with hypoxia (aOR 13.94; 95% CI: 6.07-31.98) were associated with AKI in the multivariable logistic regression model. The 3 highest ranked predictors were severe COVID-19 with hypoxia, vancomycin exposure, and age, accounting for 79.6% of the predicted variance (41.6, 23.1, and 14.9%, respectively) on dominance analysis. CONCLUSION: Severe COVID-19 is independently associated with increased risk of AKI beyond premorbid conditions and age. Appropriate avoidance of vancomycin and NSAIDs are potentially modifiable means to prevent AKI in patients with COVID-19.